12 posts
Post-earnings deep dive on Nebius, CoreWeave, and IREN. Multi-model valuation (EV/Sales, EV/ARR, SOTP, cycle scorecard) yields 12M PTs of NBIS $245 (+18%), CRWV $115 (+3%), IREN $62 (+8% base / +1,200% bull). Balanced portfolio: NBIS 45 / CRWV 35 / IREN 20.
Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk compared across three frameworks: revenue growth, P/S normalization, and SOTP. Top Pick SK Hynix (+42%), Samsung's memory implied P/S 5.19x (-22% discount vs SK), and Micron's 16.7x peer-leading premium.
Cloudflare (NET) beat revenue +34% YoY yet crashed -24.3% in a single session. We decompose the 1,100 layoff, GM compression, and four contradictions, and lay out our 12M PT $225.
Datadog (DDOG) posted a +32% revenue beat, raised FY26 guide by +7pt (19→26%), and re-accelerated its non-AI cohort, driving a +31% single-session surge (+39% cumulative). Fundamentals 11/11 green; here's how we get to a 12M PT of $230.
DigitalOcean (DOCN) printed a double beat on revenue (+22%), AI ARR up +221%, and lifted FY27 revenue guidance from ~30% to 50%+, sending the stock +40% in a single session. We assess the legitimacy of the +237% YTD, +413% 1-year run and derive a 12M price target of $185.
SanDisk (SNDK) posted +251% YoY revenue ($5.95B), 78.4% Non-GAAP GM, and $42B locked in via NBM multi-year contracts, sending shares +46.8% in 6 sessions post-earnings. We analyze the NBM model and our $1,800 12M PT.
ServiceNow (NOW) beat on revenue, EPS, cRPO, and FCF, yet plunged -17.75% post-earnings. We dissect the multiple compression: three quarters of cRPO deceleration, Armis -200bp FCF self-discount, and the 'multi-year story' confession.
Is Palantir stock a buy right now? Its fundamentals score near-perfect, but one critical weakness holds it back. We break down 10 key metrics to assess PLTR's fair value.
ServiceNow stock crashed 53% from highs, but 98% of customers never leave. We score 10 key fundamentals, compare NOW vs CRM vs WDAY, and estimate fair value.
Q4 revenue +70%, Rule of 40 = 127, 1,300+ AIP Bootcamps. Beyond geopolitical momentum — five structural reasons behind Palantir's rebound, backed by data.
DigitalOcean (DOCN) surged from $25 to $68 in under a year. We break down the AI pivot, financials, four key risks, and what to watch in the upcoming Q4 earnings to decide if it's still a buy.
A shocking discovery that Wall Street analysts' words and actions differ by 67-88%. Data-driven analysis on why NVIDIA needs caution and Palantir should be avoided at current prices.